If you thought the 6 percent contraction of global smartphone sales in the January-March 2026 timeframe compared to the same period of 2025 was bad, wait until you hear where IDC (International Data Corporation) researchers expect that number to go by the end of the year.
Following two consecutive years of healthy growth, the mobile industry is looking at its biggest decline on record, and what’s perhaps most concerning for virtually all major smartphone vendors around the world is that the market predictions made by analytics firms like IDC are only getting worse and worse due to multiple key factors.
A double-digit drop is now just about guaranteed
If we’re being honest, it was crystal clear for a while now that smartphone shipments were headed for a decline of more than 10 percent in 2026. But if you were holding out hope for some sort of a spectacular bounceback in the second half of the year after seeing the Q1 drop limited to single-digit territory, you should know that the IDC’s full-year forecast has jumped from a 12.9 to a 13.9 percent fall between February and now.
For what it’s worth, the smartphone market is expected to (slowly) recover over the next few years. | Image by IDC
Clearly, the signs are as far from encouraging as you can imagine, and the key causes behind this predicted record-breaking sales decline are not hard to guess or understand. The main one is still the memory shortage that’s led to an industry-wide rise in component costs that device manufacturers have had to pass to consumers through product price hikes, while a secondary but also pretty important reason why so many tech companies are struggling all of a sudden is the US-Iran war.
You might think that has nothing to do with smartphones and consumer electronics in general, but the conflict is impacting oil prices around the world, which in turn is putting even more pressure on the profits of handset makers big and small.
The market leaders will suffer a lot less than their rivals
Although it’s a little early to confidently predict whether Apple will manage to retain its advantage over Samsung in global smartphone sales at the end of 2026 or if the former champion will pull off a comeback for the ages to recoup its crown, it’s definitely not premature to say that both tech giants will survive the industry’s historic downfall just fine.
Thanks to a “stronger” Galaxy S26 lineup and “aggressive mid-range positioning”, Samsung is incredibly expected to gain market share this year… although that doesn’t necessarily mean Galaxy handset shipments will rise compared to 2025.
Instead, that most likely means the company’s decline will be smaller than those of virtually all other Android players, and unsurprisingly, the same goes for Apple on the back of “exceptionally” strong demand for the iPhone 17 series across “developed markets and especially in China.” The Cupertino-based behemoth is looking at a 5.2 percent drop in sales this year from its industry-leading total of 2025, which in any other year would obviously be viewed as a disastrous result. But not in 2026.
What about other potential bright spots?
Great question, and the answer is… lengthier than you’d expect. Regionally, North America is likely to vastly outperform China, Central and Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East and Africa, hanging on to a predicted 6.3 percent decline that’s a lot better than the industry’s forecasted 13.9 percent drop.
Then you have Huawei and its rapidly expanding HarmonyOS platform, which is… obviously no threat to Android or iOS on a global scale but is still expected to account for 62 million unit shipments in 2026, up from just 42 million (!!!) predicted a few months ago.
Smartphone prices are increasing, which should be good news for vendors… but it’s not. | Image by IDC
Last but certainly not least, the foldable segment clearly deserves a special, positive mention on this otherwise terribly bleak occasion, as analysts expect “new models from existing players” and especially Apple’s long-overdue iPhone Ultra to boost sales by around 20 percent. That is, of course, if Apple’s first-ever foldable device actually manages to see daylight and ship to its earliest adopters by the end of the year, which is not totally guaranteed just yet.
Even if that does end up happening, it’s important to remember that the foldable category remains a tiny piece of the global smartphone market. If this is to recover in 2027 or 2028, “traditional” handsets will need to boost their popularity as prices finally stabilize.
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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian’s passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for ‘adequate’ over ‘overpriced’.
